A Non-Performing-Loan (NPL) anywhere outside of China is a pretty uninteresting class of asset. There is no precise universal definition, but an NPL is an asset held by a bank or financial institution that does not generate the expected return.
Ordinarily how many installment loans can you get in Arizona?, a bank is expected either to “write-off” an NPL or make a provision against it on the balance sheet to reflect diminished expectations over its eventual payment. Auditing a bank’s asset book ensures this is done, thus warranting the bank’s solvency.
Given the overall level of transparency in China the figures are difficult to estimate. The official rate, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) stood at 1.4 trillion yuan, or 1.75% of the total loan book at the end of Q1-2016.
This figure is not exceptionally large by international standards, but it has been rising steadily since 2013, and there have always been bearish voices that suggest the official figure is a significant underestimate. Alongside NPLs, for example, there is another category of “Special Mention Loans” totalling 3.2 trillion yuan. Then the market estimates of the true position reaches as high as 15-19% of the loan book (from CLSA) which is very high, if true, but SocGen goes higher and estimates the overall exposure to loss within the banking sector amounts to as much as 12% of 2015 GDP.
Nevertheless, due to the nature of China’s banking system no one is expecting the sort of bank runs that might result from similar estimates in the West. Banks in China are just one reservoir of bad debts waiting to be purged by the next state led initiative, and NPLs are merely one category of debt.
On the other side of the ledger, it is an outstanding loan on which the debtor has not kept up with the scheduled payments
In this respect China’s NPL to Equity initiative (announced in March) is one of several schemes designed to clear debts without obliging banks to take the kind of asset write down implied by bundling and selling the impaired assets. Continue reading China’s Playing Hot Potato With Its Non Performing Loans
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